Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6291

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6290, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6291
    22 Oct 2026, 09:26 UTC

    RIC8B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRIC8B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf5a95ffa9e86827e

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication+0.33 p=0.380 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8728e41f764ea2fc95047991…
    follows 6a79db0b3a5e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6291: RIC8B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.13 to +0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RIC8B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.