Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6229

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.718). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6228, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6229
    22 Oct 2026, 08:03 UTC

    KLRC2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionKLRC2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda357e243788369a3

    discovery+0.14 p=0.718 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.718)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f1e98ef34a7f2f19ebfbc4d5…
    follows acc69408cedb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6229: KLRC2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.09, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KLRC2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.