Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0621

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 620, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0621
    17 Oct 2026, 02:42 UTC

    HTR1A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHTR1A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddac3500753316e4d

    discovery-0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    replication-0.27 p=0.489 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f2d731d128c2951130242b36…
    follows 5f77ef6558a2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0621: HTR1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.285, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.23. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.17, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HTR1A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.