Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6204

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.76 p 0.018; held-out +0.17 p 0.656). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6203, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6204
    22 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC

    DNM3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionDNM3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0d072287f3b5da1b

    discovery+0.76 p=0.018 n=9

    replication+0.17 p=0.656 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.76 p 0.018; held-out +0.17 p 0.656)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    e06cfe3c8c3d38f9ccc63bcf…
    follows 7d43d463901c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6204: DNM3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.46 (p 0.056, n 18), 95% CI -0.01 to +0.76. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.59 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.39 to +0.63, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DNM3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.