Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6131

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.607). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6130, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6131
    22 Oct 2026, 05:54 UTC

    EFCAB3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEFCAB3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered77a41c8343a31d54

    discovery+0.20 p=0.607 n=9

    replication+0.35 p=0.360 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.607)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2fcc33142f6d12da5419de34…
    follows cfe9fd9c1b6d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6131: EFCAB3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.34 (p 0.173, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.26 to +0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EFCAB3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.