Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6100

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.74 p 0.021; held-out -0.51 p 0.163). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6099, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6100
    22 Oct 2026, 05:13 UTC

    MBD4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMBD4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered301c49f27a6f0532

    discovery+0.74 p=0.021 n=9

    replication-0.51 p=0.163 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.74 p 0.021; held-out -0.51 p 0.163)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    1c7571d88ca100376b787247…
    follows 4a604315a1da…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6100: MBD4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.603, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MBD4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.