Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6045

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.76 p 0.016; held-out +0.05 p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6044, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6045
    22 Oct 2026, 03:56 UTC

    GLUD1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionGLUD1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8df551e3daaad73f

    discovery-0.76 p=0.016 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.76 p 0.016; held-out +0.05 p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    d66171f48cd3337233284961…
    follows 4c00840c8a77…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6045: GLUD1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.48 (p 0.045, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.01. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). holds up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.66 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GLUD1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.