Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6041

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.028; held-out -0.04 p 0.928). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6040, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6041
    22 Oct 2026, 03:50 UTC

    NAIF1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNAIF1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4e0f0b470919231a

    discovery-0.72 p=0.028 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.028; held-out -0.04 p 0.928)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    94d62345e26105c217a8ab77…
    follows 8aa3b70b6216…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6041: NAIF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.19. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NAIF1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.