Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6016

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.963). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6015, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6016
    22 Oct 2026, 03:17 UTC

    ACSL6

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionACSL6 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede0bd81e3859eda6b

    discovery-0.02 p=0.963 n=9

    replication+0.43 p=0.243 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.963)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8bd0d9892ae2b6c2b14dad88…
    follows 2fc0317659b6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6016: ACSL6 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ACSL6 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.