Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5994

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5993, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5994
    22 Oct 2026, 02:47 UTC

    POLR3GL

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPOLR3GL in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3a95a6e4222779b9

    discovery+0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    replication-0.70 p=0.036 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9619c2e4383fa08d315d17ce…
    follows 1c31d7ca26eb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5994: POLR3GL in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for POLR3GL in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.