Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5924

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.545). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5923, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5924
    22 Oct 2026, 01:57 UTC

    DLL1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionDLL1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb2c2a80fc3390d16

    discovery+0.23 p=0.545 n=9

    replication+0.09 p=0.820 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.545)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0fab2f81440f6f02ddb3318d…
    follows f70e7c6df4e6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5924: DLL1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DLL1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.