Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5922

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.718). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5921, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5922
    22 Oct 2026, 01:54 UTC

    DHTKD1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDHTKD1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcfab5a6986417495

    discovery+0.14 p=0.718 n=9

    replication-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.718)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    82162e91b2fe31e61c5f2176…
    follows 76239fd2bb6e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5922: DHTKD1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DHTKD1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.