Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5911

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.907). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5910, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5911
    22 Oct 2026, 01:41 UTC

    BBS2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionBBS2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf4e119f1e9c5eaf1

    discovery+0.05 p=0.907 n=9

    replication-0.61 p=0.078 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.907)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    133d2c1f13ed8a8a806bc004…
    follows 7315ee329ee5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5911: BBS2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.01, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BBS2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.