Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5892

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.646). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5891, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5892
    22 Oct 2026, 01:16 UTC

    IL6ST

    microglia, braak

    predictionIL6ST in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered416c4fa53ecbcdfd

    discovery-0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    replication+0.38 p=0.311 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.646)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    afe0a35290d2a245913964f4…
    follows 87229f57f8b8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5892: IL6ST in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.07 (p 0.794, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.22, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IL6ST in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.