Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5888

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5887, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5888
    22 Oct 2026, 01:10 UTC

    ST3GAL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionST3GAL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9f67747189fe9293

    discovery-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    replication-0.22 p=0.570 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9f6f64ef2f8e3864f74af58b…
    follows b3c9ddcbfb3e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5888: ST3GAL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ST3GAL2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.