Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5837

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.309). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5836, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5837
    21 Oct 2026, 23:59 UTC

    PIK3CA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPIK3CA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc8e49d116a6e326d

    discovery-0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    replication+0.36 p=0.336 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.309)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    da2d7b6b7c0e955c892677fe…
    follows c7817078cbd6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5837: PIK3CA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.09, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PIK3CA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.