Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5819

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.944). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5818, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5819
    21 Oct 2026, 23:34 UTC

    JAKMIP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionJAKMIP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered169a0d561a616502

    discovery-0.03 p=0.944 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.739 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.944)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0bd19a1bbaf507949bfb424c…
    follows a324fb4714db…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5819: JAKMIP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.827, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.00 to +0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for JAKMIP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.