Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5816

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.697). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5815, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5816
    21 Oct 2026, 23:31 UTC

    ABCC8

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionABCC8 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5dd76f92c00dbbf8

    discovery+0.15 p=0.697 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.773 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.697)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1ef9c056c10dec9e969c6457…
    follows 7bdbda2de27c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5816: ABCC8 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.16, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ABCC8 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.