Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5810

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.822). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5809, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5810
    21 Oct 2026, 23:23 UTC

    PEBP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPEBP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredab51b4e759557543

    discovery+0.09 p=0.822 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.822)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    40f3bceb6c7676bd3c09210c…
    follows 3e58117e20cd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5810: PEBP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18), 95% CI -0.18 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.23 to +0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PEBP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.