Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5792

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.402). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5791, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5792
    21 Oct 2026, 23:01 UTC

    AR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbacaa5a3e11bdc86

    discovery+0.32 p=0.402 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.402)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9db8f9961dd6148a50767f81…
    follows 1f6f2e0e6437…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5792: AR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.261, n 18), 95% CI -0.22 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.