Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5734

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.487). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5733, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5734
    21 Oct 2026, 21:44 UTC

    RXRA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRXRA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7c408f94db6095bc

    discovery+0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    replication-0.71 p=0.032 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.487)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6780508bfd3861a9d0284d60…
    follows 33ca5f6f96fc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5734: RXRA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.13. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.67 (p 0.0025, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RXRA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.