Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5715

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.80 p 0.010; held-out +0.21 p 0.581). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5714, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5715
    21 Oct 2026, 21:19 UTC

    TOMM20

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTOMM20 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered93454c66abcfff2b

    discovery+0.80 p=0.010 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.80 p 0.010; held-out +0.21 p 0.581)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    c3c402a2fcdbff4fda639241…
    follows 6dd17d774a2b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5715: TOMM20 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.51 (p 0.029, n 18), 95% CI +0.06 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.56 (p 0.015, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.45 to +0.66, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TOMM20 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.