Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5707

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.635). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5706, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5707
    21 Oct 2026, 21:08 UTC

    E2F5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionE2F5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered402fad3b58fe2a25

    discovery-0.18 p=0.635 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.635)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d381921e52e95d33f579fd93…
    follows 5c279a59710f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5707: E2F5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.13, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for E2F5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.