Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0568

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.79 p 0.012; held-out +0.01 p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 567, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0568
    17 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC

    ITPKB

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionITPKB in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6a3c25807d5dfb04

    discovery-0.79 p=0.012 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.79 p 0.012; held-out +0.01 p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    ce479b6dd02971b73bc792d6…
    follows fcbb3fd96167…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0568: ITPKB in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: -0.78 (p 1.4e-4, n 18) vs -0.34 in astrocytes. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ITPKB in astrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ITPKB · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.07 p 0.790 (needs p < 0.0016)