Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5607

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.118). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5606, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5607
    21 Oct 2026, 18:50 UTC

    GRM7

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionGRM7 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1548f924f285b910

    discovery+0.56 p=0.118 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.927 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.118)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0cbe26e46c865a800992950b…
    follows a8c67d5edd12…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5607: GRM7 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18), 95% CI -0.25 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: +0.65 (p 0.0036, n 18) vs +0.25 in oligodendrocytes. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GRM7 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GRM7 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.50 p 0.076 (needs p < 3.5e-4)