Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5596

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.79 p 0.012; held-out +0.31 p 0.414). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5595, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5596
    21 Oct 2026, 18:34 UTC

    TAT

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTAT in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered057e8dafd44ecefc

    discovery+0.79 p=0.012 n=9

    replication+0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.79 p 0.012; held-out +0.31 p 0.414)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    dbaf1e5b3bc5f2497df96ec9…
    follows 2395a1c1de31…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5596: TAT in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.47 (p 0.051, n 18), 95% CI -0.00 to +0.77. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.41 to +0.65, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TAT in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.