Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5594

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.173). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5593, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5594
    21 Oct 2026, 18:31 UTC

    NR4A1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNR4A1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9ca2c3cb6d7831d2

    discovery-0.50 p=0.173 n=9

    replication-0.33 p=0.387 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.173)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c082c9362311962f3c83bdaa…
    follows 6351944bba9a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5594: NR4A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.51 (p 0.029, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.06. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.50 (p 0.036, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.62 to -0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18) vs -0.51 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NR4A1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up NR4A1 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.10 p 0.722 (needs p < 3.6e-4)