Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5582

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.472). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5581, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5582
    21 Oct 2026, 18:14 UTC

    EPB41L3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEPB41L3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc39ed5183f9f6874

    discovery+0.28 p=0.472 n=9

    replication+0.14 p=0.716 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.472)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1b16d347c7202257394d90f8…
    follows bd2357ea5dc0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5582: EPB41L3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.476, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EPB41L3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.