Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5560

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.807). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5559, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5560
    21 Oct 2026, 17:47 UTC

    LHFPL2

    microglia, braak

    predictionLHFPL2 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered40267cb8ef380454

    discovery-0.10 p=0.807 n=9

    replication+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.807)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fdc8fed8ab5bcd8d39de0397…
    follows d393230992db…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5560: LHFPL2 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.861, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.07, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LHFPL2 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.