Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5533

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.197). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5532, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5533
    21 Oct 2026, 17:11 UTC

    UPK3A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUPK3A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5428a48f6cd56e15

    discovery-0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.857 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.197)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0a3d74b54d72b8286ce58000…
    follows 8312124499b8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5533: UPK3A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.23. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UPK3A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.