Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5528

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.251). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5527, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5528
    21 Oct 2026, 17:06 UTC

    MYT1L

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMYT1L in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered127c6d13786d7451

    discovery+0.43 p=0.251 n=9

    replication-0.23 p=0.560 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.251)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    22eb6993c8ce4b9a0d0b1863…
    follows 45638063c524…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5528: MYT1L in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.21, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MYT1L in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.