Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5515

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.910). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5514, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5515
    21 Oct 2026, 16:49 UTC

    NKX6-2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNKX6-2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2686a8385340bd0e

    discovery+0.04 p=0.910 n=9

    replication+0.69 p=0.041 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.910)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2848161fcc588a26662b05cc…
    follows aaf1c9274a7f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5515: NKX6-2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.13 to +0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NKX6-2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.