Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5510

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.390). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5509, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5510
    21 Oct 2026, 16:44 UTC

    B3GALT4

    microglia, braak

    predictionB3GALT4 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf3a95444445cc775

    discovery-0.33 p=0.390 n=9

    replication+0.30 p=0.435 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.390)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3f4edbb4f9cecdb8b2aa6878…
    follows 32daed86e0df…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5510: B3GALT4 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.05, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for B3GALT4 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.