Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5454

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.82 p 0.0066; held-out -0.11 p 0.775). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5453, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5454
    21 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC

    OLFM2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionOLFM2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered616e3a8b90e15a25

    discovery-0.82 p=0.0066 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.775 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.82 p 0.0066; held-out -0.11 p 0.775)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    64b469e21c67be11bf4474b4…
    follows 2588f0427234…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5454: OLFM2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.66 (p 0.0026, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OLFM2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.