Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5441

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5440, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5441
    21 Oct 2026, 15:18 UTC

    ATG4B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATG4B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered229d2c9b52e46b25

    discovery-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e4379434453d5f88a2b9a95d…
    follows d3ce86d7a4ab…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5441: ATG4B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.261, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.17, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.62 (p 0.0062, n 18) vs -0.28 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATG4B in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ATG4B · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.15 p 0.594 (needs p < 3.6e-4)