Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5438

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.360). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5437, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5438
    21 Oct 2026, 15:16 UTC

    PYCR2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPYCR2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered24ad6b5f2158a2cb

    discovery+0.35 p=0.360 n=9

    replication-0.51 p=0.160 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.360)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ee011384e5928d84806db451…
    follows a3c514b1ea74…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5438: PYCR2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.12, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PYCR2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.