Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5391

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.402). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5390, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5391
    21 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC

    CX3CR1

    microglia, braak

    predictionCX3CR1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc10bc98de38d5885

    discovery+0.32 p=0.402 n=9

    replication+0.69 p=0.039 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.402)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1654aa6db696cfdf703e6da0…
    follows 9cae2347b314…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5391: CX3CR1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.37 (p 0.127, n 18), 95% CI -0.11 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.54 (p 0.022, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CX3CR1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.