Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5375

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5374, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5375
    21 Oct 2026, 13:53 UTC

    DEPDC1B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDEPDC1B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb776952cfdb0205a

    discovery+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    replication+0.56 p=0.115 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6b3c621d5320d1195a13d320…
    follows b0dae3bd6d74…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5375: DEPDC1B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.30 (p 0.221, n 18), 95% CI -0.19 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.21 to +0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DEPDC1B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.