Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5360

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.090). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5359, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5360
    21 Oct 2026, 13:34 UTC

    HLF

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHLF in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5963551c1e8e79dd

    discovery-0.60 p=0.090 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.090)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    50a8f474d9b9e44f2b1af46d…
    follows 86a068540b8a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5360: HLF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HLF in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.