Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0536

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.775). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 535, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0536
    17 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC

    COMT

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCOMT in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbc8e037797fe10ca

    discovery+0.11 p=0.775 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.907 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.775)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    604b86c76687c5b3d255b9bf…
    follows 2bd8c6a9ecfb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0536: COMT in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.08, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COMT in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.