Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5352

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5351, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5352
    21 Oct 2026, 13:23 UTC

    OPA3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionOPA3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf029abcea81226f1

    discovery+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    replication-0.74 p=0.021 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c7ce230485565e1308c1facf…
    follows d067ed1e5d2f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5352: OPA3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.26. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.59 (p 0.0096, n 18) vs -0.23 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OPA3 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up OPA3 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.32 p 0.248 (needs p < 3.8e-4)