Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5303

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5302, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5303
    21 Oct 2026, 12:20 UTC

    PPIL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPIL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered31aa1880cfdd614e

    discovery+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.499 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8fd289e77e718aca72a01a55…
    follows 9016501de0c4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5303: PPIL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.683, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.02, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPIL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.