Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5257

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.701). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5256, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5257
    21 Oct 2026, 11:22 UTC

    NUDT13

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNUDT13 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd8d7326d29536df0

    discovery+0.15 p=0.701 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.227 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.701)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5ea2bc7944dcf159fdb2c6ad…
    follows 69f1aaa954d7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5257: NUDT13 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.125, n 18), 95% CI -0.11 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NUDT13 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.