Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0525

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.87 p 0.0025; held-out -0.09 p 0.812). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 524, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0525
    17 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC

    MAPT

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMAPT in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf32b99c1c39acb31

    discovery-0.87 p=0.0025 n=9

    replication-0.09 p=0.812 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.87 p 0.0025; held-out -0.09 p 0.812)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    88f7faf2d547c8f73f06d69b…
    follows 12f3610166bc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0525: MAPT in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.35 (p 0.153, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.14. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.218, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.35 (p 0.153, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAPT in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.