Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5208

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5207, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5208
    21 Oct 2026, 10:24 UTC

    GAN

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionGAN in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredda134a633324e1d1

    discovery+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.499 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f42d03f66e1d0af9028a0f2a…
    follows f809b6164f60…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5208: GAN in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GAN in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.