Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5180

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.663). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5179, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5180
    21 Oct 2026, 09:48 UTC

    SOAT1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSOAT1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1c61818f0a8ed83a

    discovery+0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.615 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.663)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3bb5c51b8a9908d25b8f1d0d…
    follows 598ec6f2b570…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5180: SOAT1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.06, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.60 (p 0.0086, n 18) vs -0.04 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SOAT1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SOAT1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.45 p 0.110 (needs p < 3.8e-4)