Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5109

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5108, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5109
    21 Oct 2026, 08:15 UTC

    MAN2B1

    microglia, braak

    predictionMAN2B1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered22b0de767a4e22a6

    discovery+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.925 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    67e6e45297cea88bb30f01cb…
    follows 33d276741efb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5109: MAN2B1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.949, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.17, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAN2B1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.