Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5105

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.68 p 0.042; held-out -0.19 p 0.631). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5104, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5105
    21 Oct 2026, 08:09 UTC

    ELAVL4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionELAVL4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda8653b80a1d8b75d

    discovery+0.68 p=0.042 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.68 p 0.042; held-out -0.19 p 0.631)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    94dcc0e7103999e3121bd9fe…
    follows 83758298720a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5105: ELAVL4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.27 (p 0.281, n 18), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ELAVL4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.