Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5089

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.098). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5088, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5089
    21 Oct 2026, 07:47 UTC

    GTF2IRD1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGTF2IRD1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5117afb84c222e75

    discovery-0.59 p=0.098 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.098)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d749ec19baf7f674e17a1ab7…
    follows 8f61518d772e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5089: GTF2IRD1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.062, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.062, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.75 (p 3.7e-4, n 18) vs -0.45 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GTF2IRD1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GTF2IRD1 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured