Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5085

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.778). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5084, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5085
    21 Oct 2026, 07:41 UTC

    SS18L1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSS18L1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered39484d9d743497fd

    discovery-0.11 p=0.778 n=9

    replication-0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.778)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b8b2de7c033130563726a226…
    follows dd5587fdf4a3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5085: SS18L1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SS18L1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.